pckswarms.ch - interesting uncommon events

From http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm:

Taleb, by contrast, has constructed a trading philosophy predicated entirely on the existence of black swans. on the possibility of some random, unexpected event sweeping the markets. He never sells options, then. He only buys them. He's never the one who can lose a great deal of money if G.M. stock suddenly plunges. Nor does he ever bet on the market moving in one direction or another. That would require Taleb to assume that he understands the market, and he doesn't. He hasn't Warren Buffett's confidence. So he buys options on both sides, on the possibility of the market moving both up and down. And he doesn't bet on minor fluctuations in the market. Why bother? If everyone else is vastly underestimating the possibility of rare events, then an option on G.M. at, say, forty dollars is going to be undervalued. So Taleb buys out-of-the-money options by the truckload. He buys them for hundreds of different stocks, and if they expire before he gets to use them he simply buys more. Taleb doesn't even invest in stocks, not for Empirica and not for his own personal account. Buying a stock, unlike buying an option, is a gamble that the future will represent an improved version of the past. And who knows whether that will be true? So all of Taleb's personal wealth, and the hundreds of millions that Empirica has in reserve, is in Treasury bills. Few on Wall Street have taken the practice of buying options to such extremes. But if anything completely out of the ordinary happens to the stock market, if some random event sends a jolt through all of Wall Street and pushes G.M. to, say, twenty dollars, Nassim Taleb will not end up in a dowdy apartment in Athens. He will be rich.

31 January 2008


Richard P. Gabriel Interview at OOPSLA 2007


RunBasic's site runs on seaside

25 January 2008


I think the numbers might be high, but, 6000 new comprimised websites a day?. Wow. They sure do pound on our little 300mhz system...

23 January 2008


Opps, UPnP and web browsers are a bad combo for your home network

17 January 2008


Interview with a Hedge Fund Manager


Kiosk by Bruce Sterling

Timeline 9: "The Big D"

16 January 2008


ACM Classic Books

11 January 2008


Squeak using VNC and Remote Frame Buffer

08 January 2008


The revised MacLisp Manual (The Pitmanual)

Bruce O'Neel

Last modified: Thu Apr 5 13:42:07 MET 2007